The impact of renewable energy expansion on economic growth and structural transformation in Jordan: An econometric analysis for 2010–2024

This study investigates the relationship between renewable energy growth, real economic growth, and structural change in Jordan over the period 2010–2024, with a special focus on agriculture, industry, and services. The analysis is based on original annual observations with quarterly estimates derived by linear interpolation. Stationarity is tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS), and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. The interpolated quarterly data series is subjected to Johansen cointegration tests and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimations, and annual autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are used for robustness checks based on the original observations. The quarterly evidence indicates cointegration for real gross domestic product and agriculture, rejects cointegration for industry, and is inconclusive for services. The FMOLS results indicate positive coefficients of renewable energy in all four equations. However, the residual diagnostics and the interpolated data suggest a careful interpretation. The annual pattern provides the strongest statistical signal for agriculture, but the estimated autoregressive dynamics do not allow an unconditional long-run interpretation; the evidence for gross domestic product, industry, and services is weaker. In general, the expansion of renewable energy is related to Jordan’s economic and structural transformation, but the relationship is heterogeneous and strongest for aggregate output and agriculture. Findings support greater integration of renewable energy into productive sectors, alongside grid modernisation, storage, energy efficiency, targeted finance, and directly observed higher-frequency databases.